I've Never Been Late for Anything!

I think I have my parents to thank for making me so punctual. Never was late for school or church or for the occasional birthday party. Always, to this day, am dressed and ready to go before anyone else in the house; even to the point where I can be excruciatingly impatient when I have to wait for someone. But, you know the old saying, at least if you're late ALL the time, you never have to wait for anyone.

In case your wondering where I'm going with this... it's about always being too early into the trade; afraid you'll miss out and not letting the trade come to you. I admit I'm as guilty as the next person when it comes to jumping into a trade too early. I'm more impatient than I am impulsive and, when I don't follow my plan, I find myself doing a lot of waiting around for the trade to develop and go as I'd planned. Then, of course, I sell/buy JUST before the big move.

Here's the perfect scenario:

I featured this setup last weekend on my blog. Long over 29 on volume. Today the market is moving and so is $SUG. I'm tempted to cheat a little and go in below 29. After all, it's ALMOST there. Right? Wrong. This time I'm not going to get the "Stupid Award". This time I will wait and trade my plan. And this time I won't be excruciatingly early!

Hope you're all having as good a day as I am. Good trading for the rest of this day!

It Feels Right to be Long

I sat down to scan for my setups thinking "Not going to find too much to talk about this week". Well, imagine my surprise when I found too many long setups instead of too few. I also found some short possibilities but I've realized that somehow it feels wrong to be shorting stocks when the market has looked so good... up until last week, of course. It's as if you're doing something illegal or illicit, if you will. The market has done a masterful job recently of shaking off all the bad news that the world has thrown at it. Somehow it takes the punishment and rights itself to push on higher.

The shakeout that the market has gone through lately has produced some pullbacks and opportunities that I missed when they happened. Here then are a few setups that I'll be watching this week. This is only a small sample so I may publish updated blogs as the week goes along. I've included one or two short possibilities but my bias here is to the long side.

There's only one caveat to keep in mind. A lot of the setups that are showing up are for the Oil Sector or Oil Services sector. I suspect when all the turmoil quiets down (if it ever does) that these stocks will fall out of favor. The other thing that's obvious by looking at the charts is that a lot of the stocks pulled back on Friday at the close. Need to see some follow through on Monday.

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$MPEL Nice move up to long term resistance. MACD/RSI confirming. Long over 8.00 with volume. Nothing in the way after that until 11.

Other stocks in this sector (Gaming)... $WYNN $LVS $PNK $SHFL

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$JKHY Small gap up to resistance. MACD/RSI curling up; volume footprint looks good. Break above resistance takes it to multi-year high. Long over 33 w/volume.

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$CFN Nice break out of pullback on good volume; MACD/RSI curling up; cup/handle on the weekly. Would like some follow through. Long over 28.25.

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$BRKR Moving up to resistance. Needs volume over 20. MACD/RSI confirming move up. Long over 20 w/volume. Resistance at 24 after that.

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$HMA Another good move up on volume. MACD/RSI curling up. Resistance at 11.50; then 13. Long over 11 on volume.

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$FL Tried to like this from the short side but it proved me wrong. Good move on volume. MACD/RSI confirmimg; imminent MA crossover. Over 20.30 w/volume. May try to come back to fill gap.

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$TDC Nice move up after 2 pullbacks. Above long term resistance. MACD/RSI confirming. Multi-year high over 50.70.

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$MINI Up to resistance on good volume. Looks good over 24. Some resistance at 25 then 32. They like to run the stops on this (see red arrows) so be vigilant. MA Cross; MACD/RSI curling.

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$SGY Break of resistance; good volume footprint; MACD/RSI confirm. Some resistance at 31.50, then 48. Needs follow thru w/volume. I am long at 30.20.

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$SUG Sitting on long term support here. Next resistance at 32 then 35. MACD/RSI curling up could confirm B/O above 29.

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$GRM Nice bounce off of 50 period MA. Break of downtrend line. MACD/RSI confirming. Need follow through and volume. Owned at 16.59, Out at 17.08. Want reentry on volume.

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$BRNC Nice break above consolidation with volume. Resting here. MACD/RSI curling up. Next stop on weekly at 15. I am long at 10.84.

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$MOV Break of trendline and follow through on volume. MACD/RSI confirming. Long over congestion at 15. Next resistance at 19 then 25.

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$ASGN Only short prospect for now. Losing the 50 period MA. MACD/RSI say down. Short below 8.75 with volume. No position.

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That's all I've got for now. Well, actually, there's more but blog is starting to overwhelm me. You too, maybe?

Hope you all had a great weekend. Trade smart this week... should be interesting, as always. See you on the stream.

Reminds Me of a Joke...

I don't know if anyone reading this remembers all the "moron" jokes we told as kids. But here goes:

Why did the moron keep hitting himself on the head with a hammer???
Cause it felt so good when he stopped!



That's what I'm reminded of when spring seems just around the corner. Living in the Northeast is a bit like hitting yourself with a hammer. Because it feels so good when the winter is coming to an end and spring is in the air. The days seem brighter and our collective moods get so much better! We've survived!!!

This is one of those days. Bright sunshine; clear blue skies; still cold and crisp but much, much better than it was a month ago. I, if you haven't already guessed, am the eternal optimist and on days like today I feel like a million bucks. Hope you all feel that way too. After I'm through soaking up all of this beautiful sunshine I'll be scanning for setups for the week ahead.

Enjoy your weekend all. I'll have setups to share later on Sunday.

Just Wanna Make a Buck...

I finally saw my broker and got that pesky commission issue straightened out. I think you'll all agree that we reached a fair and equitable conclusion...



Now that I'm at the end of the first quarter of trading it's time to take a look at the gains and losses so far. I have a net gain for the first three months but I also have racked up some serious commissions. It's something I need to look at going forward. There isn't a set formula for this sort of thing. It depends on everyone's individual trading style. Some traders scale in their positions; others put on a full position right at the beginning of the trade. The first trading style, obviously, will cost more in the end than the other. There are also stocks that cost more to trade and fall outside of the standard commission schedule. It's an individual's decision on how he or she prefers to trade but it's something that needs to be factored into each persons trading decisions.

OK. Now that I've gotten that out of the way.  I wish you all a good weekend. There's a full moon tonight... it's the "worm moon" and it's orbit brings it the closest to the earth that it's been in a long time. The next time it comes this close will be 2027. If you're as old as I am (older than dirt) you won't be around so please enjoy the view while you can. If you're lucky, and it's a crystal clear night, the view is magnificent.

Be well. Stay safe. Will have setups to share later this weekend.

If You Can Keep Your Head...

...when all those around you are losing theirs, you don't understand the situation.



And so it went yesterday. Another day, another crisis, another chance to trade smart or not at all. All the traders that I know on the stream DO know the situation. Which is why most of them are able to get through a day like we all had yesterday. We were all on information overload and needed to turn down the noise.

I'm in all cash now and am still watching my setups to see how they are resolved after yesterday's action. I see a lot of gaps that need to be filled and know that the stocks will probably go back to their breakout or breakdown levels. How they act if and when they approach these levels will determine how I trade at that time. I'm not feeling compelled to jump back in. I can wait. Patience is key here.

The market action yesterday had everyone running for the exits. So today I just want to make sure that I don't get trampled when they all come thundering back in the door.

Screw your head on straight, keep your wits about you; trade smart... see you all on the stream.

Setups for the Week of Mar 14

After sifting through the charts that my scans produced this weekend there are a couple of things that stand out. First and most obvious is the fact that last week's market action took it's toll on many of the stocks that I was watching as long candidates. Second... a lot of the prices are approaching their 50 period MAs and some have now fallen below all three moving averages. I have 3 times as many short setups as long this week. Am I cheering you up at all? I'm going to start looking more at short positions than long now but always with an eye on the exits if we get a sharp reversal during the week. Here are some of the setups for the week ahead:

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$CSU Most of the stocks in this sector sold off Thursday and Friday. This one acted well. Lower volume on a pullback; good volume on recovery. Long over 9.75.

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$DPZ Finally broke above the 17.50 but still needs follow through on volume. MACD/RSI are confirming.

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$MW Trying to fill December gap. Good volume on B/O; MACD/RSI curling up; blue sky on weekly over 28.65.

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$AMAT Below 50MA and previous support at 15. Likes 15 to 15.10 price area. Volume, MACD/RSI all say down. Support at 14 then 13.

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$ATML Gap down on Thursday; tried to fill Friday. Volume, MACD/RSI confirming breakdown. Weekly points lower; support at 10.65 then 8.

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$HL Short below 8.50 on volume. Not much support until 7. MACD/RSI pointing down.

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$LCRY Break on volume; MACD/RSI confirming down; price below all MAs. Short on any retest of break at 12.93.

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$OPK Breaking down on huge volume; low volume retest; MACD/RSI confirming. Short below 3.50. Support at 3.00 then 2.

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$ZAGG Broke support with volume. Trending lower below all MAs. Short below 7.50 on volume. Into the vacuum after that. Earnings on Monday AMC.

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But wait, there's more... well, there is but I think I've given the folks enough to chew on. Got a feeling we're in for more chop this week. Way too much happening in the world for calm and order.

Trade smart this week... see you all on the stream.

I Was a Little Short This Week

I know from watching the Twitter stream that a lot of traders frown on shorting stocks. It may be that they're uncomfortable with the risk, would rather wait to trade the stock from the long side or they may simply be purists when it comes to trading. I believe that you can work both sides of a trade, long and short. I look at the charts that I have in front of me and if any of them suggest that a short sale is the best trade then I'll consider selling the stock.

The past week was choppy at best but it did present some opportunities for one or two short sales. Along with my long positions I shorted 3 stocks. $ATML, $AMAT and $LCRY. I was able to take a nice gain on 2 of the stocks and had a small loss on the third.

It was good week all in all. I've been seeing more short setups lately than long so I'll continue to look at the charts with an unbiased eye. I'll practice good risk management and honor all my stops so that I can minimize any loss. We know that the market presents us with opportunities to trade from both sides. We just need to take advantage of those opportunities and do it with discipline and good judgment.

I hope to have some setups to share by late Sunday. Have a good weekend. See you all on the stream.

Pass the Dramamine Please

Another choppy session in the market on Wednesday and another day of adjusting our trading plans to fit the action. Here is an update for today...

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$ABAX long on any pullback to 28.50.

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One short position and some short setups going forward.

$ATML Breakdown on volume, MACD/RSI confirming, weekly chart confirms MA Crossover. Needs to close below 12.45 (200MA on weekly). Next support at 12 then 10. Short here or on a pullback to 12.75.

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$AMAT Broke below 15.66 on volume, MACD/RSI all say lower. I have a sell order in at 15.30 but will watch this level and adjust the order accordingly.

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$ALLT Broke support at 13.69 on volume and selling accelerated into the close. MACD/RSI point lower. Short here or on a pullback to the 13.70.

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Going to be another choppy end to the week I'm afraid. Futures are pointing down as I write this.
Trade well; trade smart. See you all on the stream.

It Is Not Always What We Expect

We had another choppy market on Monday. Although the market opened in positive territory the gains were short-lived and stocks sold off mid-morning to end down for the day. The market recovered on Tuesday but seems to be choppy at best. The setups that I had all suffered but are still on the radar until the markets give some direction. What follows is an update of the charts after today's action. Click on each symbol to view an updated chart. (You'll see a dialog box with 3 choices. Click on "Discard Last Session")
$PKT  $ATSG  $BMY  $DPZ  $SCOR  $SCSS 
All of the charts sustained some damage and I'll be watching to see if the prices recover before putting on any positions. I went all cash mid-morning on Monday to lock in some nice gains when the indexes began to fail. I reentered a few trades, $FVE, $HMA and $CSU. The daily and the weekly charts still look good and I'll hold these with tight stops. I was short one position, $SHOR at 7.10. The price went up on Tuesday and I was stopped out.

I have one setup on the radar today and tweeted the chart yesterday. Here it is again:

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$ABAX Over 28.50 0n volume.

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That's it for this morning. Trade well today. See you on the stream.

Some setups for the week of Mar 7

Another choppy week last week left us battered but not broken. The Middle East is still very much a factor in my opinion so I think the week ahead will give us more of the same. I'll be watching closely and setting tight stops on all my positions; most especially those in the oil & gas sectors ($GLBL $PDS $KEG). I found quite a few stocks that are setting up nicely for long positions and am still watching a couple from the short side. I'll wait for the market and price action to tell me when to enter from either side. Here are just a few of the setups that I'm watching going into the new trading week...

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$PKT This one's ready right here, right now. MA crossover, move up on good volume, MACD/RSI curling up. Will be stalking any break here. 200MA on weekly at 11.13. Next resistance 16, then 24.

Also in this sector: $ALLT $RVBD $RDCM $TIBX

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$ATSG Move up on good volume; MACD/RSI curling up; MA Crossover. Long over 8.50.

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$BMY This sector (Pharma) can be scary so I don't trade the stocks within it, but this setup looks good. Move on good volume: MA Crossover: MACD/RSI curling.  Top of Jan gap at 26.50. Clears resistance at 26.75 then 28.

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$DPZ Move up on volume; MACD/RSI curling up; MA Crossover. Resistance at 20 then blue sky 'til 35. Long over 17.60. And who among us doesn't LOVE pizza!

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$SCOR Move on volume; MACD/RSI curling up; MA Crossover. On the radar. Long over 29.13. Next stop, 33.

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$LCRY On the radar for long over 15. MACD/RSI, volume need to confirm. Weekly says higher. Resistance 16.35. Then 23.

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$SCSS Close above LT resistance on 1.5x avg. volume. Long above 12.10. MACD/RSI rising. Nearby resistance; 17.50, then 24. Weekly says go.

These are just some of the possibilities for the week ahead. Will be watching the futures this evening and before market open tomorrow. Good luck all. Trade them well!

Positions as of EOD Friday:
Long: $COV cost basis 52.01; $CSU 9.25; $FVE 7.25; $GLBL 8.88; $HMA 10.07; $PDS 12.07 $KEG 15.61; $SSN 4.02; $ICO 10.28 (partial; won't add).

Kudos to chessAndwine and FibLine, two of the best/smartest traders on the stream, for calling out $ICO and $COV.

Cash: 62%

Tuning Out the Noise

I tweeted on Monday, the last day of February, that I was looking forward to a new month and that I felt like we had some momentum going into the first week. And, as we've seen so many times before, the first day proved to be a test for all of us. I was fortunate to have some good trades on and was able to book profits on the day. Wednesday the market righted the ship and things appeared to be calming down. It starts to feel , after a while, as if we're all in a snow globe that someone has shaken and it takes 2 or 3 days before all the flakes have settled. We read the news on the web, Middle East, Oil, Eurozone, and the news channels that seem to push the panic button at the first sign of a pullback.

I've been trading for 20 years. I've followed and read books about trading by John Murphy, John Bollinger, William O'Neil and even Benjamin Graham. I've developed my own style of looking at charts and patterns to determine whether or not a trade looks good to me. I watch the stream on Twitter every day where we have the expertise and knowledge of some of the best traders around offering their advice and sharing their knowledge. But lately with all of the information available over the web and on the stream I sometimes find myself wanting to jump on any bus that comes down the road. It usually happens after I've had a few bad trades and start to question my trading style.

So it's at times like these that I need to shut off the noise, close down Twitter, Stocktwits and the financial news channels and stop looking at every stock that's mentioned on the stream. I'll go back to trading the way that has always served me best. When the trade goes as I'd expected I give myself a big pat on the back. When I jump into a trade too early instead of waiting for the signal I know is there, I'll cut my losses and put it behind me. Sometimes I'll make sure my stops are in place and just take some time away from the screen and all the noise. I think that we all need to do this in order to keep our heads in the game.
I'll close for now but I'm looking forward to seeing you all on the stream this morning... the futures are all pointing higher and I know how "giddy" we all get when that happens.

Good luck today and trade them well. Let's go get 'em